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NEW QUESTION: 1
Natalia Berg, CFA, has estimated the key rate durations for several maturities in three of her $25 million bond portfolios, as shown in Exhibit 1.

At a fixed-income conference in London, Berg hears a presentation by a university professor on the increasing use of the swap rate curve as a benchmark instead of the government bond yield curve. When Berg returns from the conference, she realizes she has left her notes from the presentation on the airplane. However, she is very interested in learning more about whether she should consider using the swap rate curve in her work.
As she tries to reconstruct what was said at the conference, she writes down two advantages to using the swap rate curve:
Statement 1: The swap rate curve typically has yield quotes at 11 maturities between 2 and 30 years. The
U.S. government bond yield curve, however, has fewer on-the-run issues trading at maturities of at least two years.
Statement 2: Swap curves across countries are more comparable than government bond curves because they reflect similar levels of credit risk.
Berg also estimates the nominal spread, Z-spread, and option-adjusted spread (OAS) for the Steigers Corporation callable bonds in Portfolio 2. The OAS is estimated from a binomial interest rate tree. The results are shown in Exhibit 2.

Berg determines that to obtain an accurate estimate of the effective duration and effective convexity of a callable bond using a binomial model, the specified change in yield (i.e., Ay) must be equal to the OAS.
Berg also observes that the current Treasury bond yield curve is upward sloping. Based on this observation, Berg forecasts that short-term interest rates will increase.
Is Berg's short-term interest rate forecast consistent with the pure expectations theory and the liquidity premium theory?
A. Consistent with both theories.
B. Consistent with the pure expectations theory only.
C. Consistent with the liquidity premium theory only.
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation/Reference:
Explanation:
An upward sloping yield curve predicts an increase in short-term rates according to the pure expectations theory but not necessarily the liquidity premium theory.
The liquidity theory says that forward rates are a biased estimate of the market's expectation of future rates because they include a liquidity premium. Therefore, a positive sloping yield curve may indicate either (1) that the market expects future interest rates to rise or (2) that rates are expected to remain constant (or even fall), but the addition of the liquidity premium results in a positive slope. (Study Session 14, LOS 53.e)